From June 2020, the daily melting volume of float glass will increase. In 2021, the demand of real estate for float glass keeps a high growth trend. The spot market of float glass continued to rise. Stimulated by high profits, the new ignition and production line of float glass accelerated production, and the cold repair time of some float glass lines was delayed. As of May 13, there are 302 float glass production lines in China, 256 of which are in production. The daily melting capacity is 169675 tons, which is 3450 tons more than that at the end of 2020, 15680 tons more than that at the end of 2020, and 94000 tons more than that at the end of 2020. Under the background of "carbon peaking and carbon neutralization", photovoltaic power generation has great development potential, which drives the demand for photovoltaic glass. Photovoltaic glass production capacity expanded rapidly. As of May 13, there were 204 photovoltaic glass production lines in China, with daily melting capacity of 35190 tons, a year-on-year increase of 10730 tons, equivalent to the monthly consumption of soda increased by about 64000 tons.
The price of heavy alkali is positively correlated with the production capacity of flat glass, and the consumption of heavy alkali by float glass and photovoltaic glass continues to increase. 90% of heavy alkali is used to produce float glass and photovoltaic glass, and there is no substitute for soda ash in glass production. Under the strong support of heavy alkali demand, the domestic heavy alkali price has been fluctuating upward since June 2020. In 2021, the price of heavy caustic soda continued to rise, and the average price of heavy caustic soda increased by 485 yuan / ton, 32.88% higher than that at the end of 2020. At present, the heavy alkali delivery of soda manufacturers is relatively smooth, and the heavy alkali inventory of soda manufacturers is declining. In May, the price of heavy alkali increased slightly, and the mainstream transaction price of heavy alkali increased by 30-50 yuan / ton. At present, the domestic mainstream terminal price of heavy alkali is about 1920-2000 yuan / ton.
The downstream demand of light alkali is general, while the demand of heavy alkali is strong. In May, the terminal price difference between light alkali and heavy alkali expanded to about 200 yuan / ton. In this case, soda manufacturers increase the output of heavy alkali, reduce the output of light alkali, reduce the supply of light alkali, and the proportion of heavy alkali production has reached about 50%. From late April, soda ash futures rose strongly, which greatly boosted the atmosphere of the spot market. After the May Day holiday, the market price reduction expectation subsided, the price of heavy alkali increased slightly, the enthusiasm of light alkali users to take goods increased, the orders of United alkali manufacturers were basically finished this month, and the transaction price of low-end light alkali in central and East China increased by 20-50 yuan / ton.
From May to June, the planned new ignition and production of float glass are relatively concentrated, and the daily melting volume of float glass from September to October is expected to reach the highest point in the year. In the second half of the year, the new capacity of photovoltaic glass is planned to be concentrated, and the consumption of heavy alkali will be significantly increased. In the second half of this year, the growth rate of heavy alkali demand will accelerate, and the annual heavy alkali consumption is expected to increase by about 1.7 million tons, with a year-on-year growth rate of 13%. Most of the traders are cautiously optimistic about the future market, the futures market maintains a positive market structure, and there are risk-free arbitrage opportunities most of the time. In the second half of this year, the demand for soda ash is expected to increase, while the demand for heavy soda is expected to continue to increase. The domestic soda ash market is expected to remain good in the second half of this year.
